The COVID-19 pandemic caused unemployment to drop to levels not seen since the Great Depression.
The subsequent recession is unique because it is not self-imposed, said Ray Perryman, CEO of the Perryman Group.
“Almost every downturn in the US over the past 50 years was because we did something stupid. Until COVID, ”he said during the Dallas Regional Chamber’s annual Year Ahead event Thursday.
It was also distinctive because the COVID health crisis had to be addressed first to correct the economic impact, Perryman said.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas lost 338,600 jobs in 2009 during the Great Recession. During the pandemic, the state lost 1.4 million jobs from February to April 2020.
Now the economy is coming back, with Dallas-Plano-Irving recovering better than the state or the nation, according to a study by the Perryman Group.
The Dallas-Plano-Irving economy has surpassed pre-pandemic employment levels, an achievement unprecedented in the region’s other metropolitan area, Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine, or the state or nation.
Employment in Dallas-Plano-Irving is projected to grow 2.24% annually over the next five years, and US $ 3.1 million in 2026
Industries hardest hit by the pandemic are now leading employment growth, such as hospitality. In the next five years, the service industries are expected to be the engine of job creation across the state, Perryman Group said. Wholesale and retail companies will also see many new hires.
Dallas-Plano-Irving’s real gross product is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.83% to $ 429.2 billion over the next five years. That’s higher than an expected 3.41% for the US, but lower than an estimated 4.09% for Texas.
Growth in Dallas-Plano-Irving is being driven in part by an expected annual population growth rate of 1.62%, which the Perryman Group said would bring it to 5.7 million in 2026. That is higher than the US expected annual population growth rate of 0.68% and the expected annual population growth rate for Texas of 1.33%.
The population of Dallas-Plano-Irving is now just under 5.1 million.
In September, the Texas unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.9% in August. The Dallas Fed expects the state to hit pre-pandemic employment levels by January.
Regional activity “accelerated sharply” in September and October, the Dallas Fed said in a report earlier this week. Growth through 2022 “strengthened” despite supply chain issues and recruitment issues, the report said.
The US is expected to take longer to recover as the effects of the pandemic slow progress over the next several years, the Perryman Group said. In some industries and areas, labor shortages continue to hold back growth.
“The solutions are likely to involve a variety of shifts ranging from higher wages and greater immigration to greater use of technology and automation,” said the Perryman Group.
The national unemployment rate fell 0.2% from September to October, landing at 4.6%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total non-farm employment in February 2020 is 2.8% below pre-pandemic levels.
The US economy is expected to show “relatively strong” growth over the next five years despite the toll of the pandemic, the Perryman Group said.
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