With all this talk about the doom of the Dallas Cowboys, there are numbers that both support and contradict these so-called worries. The Cowboys greet a few missed faces for a potentially deep playoff run.
The rest of the NFC East rivals are close to their full roster but are still lagging behind an ailing and Covid-ridden NFL franchise. Every team in the division has a few key players, but none more than the Cowboys right now.
Dallas played on Thanksgiving without their top two wideouts and their entire starting line of defense. Throw in the fact that they are missing out on their starting security, highest paid tight end, and a wacky start running back and you have a good reason why they were in a crisis.
Can’t the Dallas Cowboys win NFC East this season and miss the playoffs? The answer is yes, but I’m going to show you how unlikely this scenario is.
The numbers don’t lie for the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff chances
Odds makers currently have a 92% chance for the cowboys to reach the playoffs. The Cowboys could give up their next three games and still have a 51% chance of making the playoffs. If they win their next three games, the chance they will get the first seed increases to 18%.
The Cowboys would have to give up their next two games, with Washington winning both of their next competitions just to score a draw. Since both teams have a head-to-head match during this period, Washington would win the tie-break in this scenario.
Washington currently has the longest winning streak in the league with three games. You’re traveling to compete against a Raiders team that has experienced a season’s roller coaster ride. If they win this game and Dallas falls to New Orleans on Thursday night, there may be cause for concern.
Dallas would have to travel to Washington in a game that would give the winner the lead in the NFC East race. With the way the NFC has played this season, the chances are good that Dallas is still in seventh and final playoff spot.
Dallas will lose both of their next two competitions, which still gives them a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs. Dallas, Washington and the Giants have six games left, while the Eagles, who haven’t had a farewell week yet, have only five games left.
Since the Cowboys have beaten the other teams in the division once before this season, the worst they can get in the division is 2-4. Washington has only played and won against the Giants, so they have five league games left.
With six games remaining and Dallas leading two games, the magic number of Cowboys is four games with an asterisk. If Dallas wins four games, including one against Washington, the Cowboys cannot be caught and would lock the division up. That doesn’t even count the losses or the face-to-face duels for which the division has yet to account.
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Let’s say Dallas wins this week and next. You would be 9-4 and have a stranglehold on the east. That would mean Washington is 6-7 with four games to play. That is, if they beat Las Vegas that weekend.
That would make Washington and the rest of the east aware of wild cards as well. This scenario would give the Cowboys an opportunity to seal off Division Week 15 in New York.
With Philadelphia playing the Jets this weekend and then it’s their farewell week, the week 15 match against Washington could be interesting for Dallas if they actually win their next three games. Unless the New York Jets get us going this weekend and turn the Eagles upside down.
I know that’s greedy, especially when I think we owe them a thank you card for not agreeing to send Jamal Adams to Dallas. It doesn’t matter what the Giants do against Miami this weekend or the Chargers next weekend because a Dallas win in week 15 would make the inevitable official. That’s when Dallas can start another winning streak.
That means a three-game winning streak for the Cowboys coupled with a single loss for either division team would allow the Cowboys to punch their playoff tickets. That would also ensure they host at least one game in Big D.
When you’re a cowboys game participant it is getting closer to making travel plans, but there is still work to be done. While there are so many different ways the table can change, the scenario I find most plausible is a 15th division win.
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