Dallas County reaches herd immunity even as new COVID cases continue to hold steady, experts say

Updated at 6pm, July 8th: This story has been updated continuously.

Dallas County crossed a major threshold in the fight to contain the coronavirus pandemic this week, achieving herd immunity on July 4th, according to a nonprofit that tracks health data for the county.

At least 80% of the county’s residents either have natural immunity to previous infection with COVID-19 or are vaccinated, officials at the Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation said in a statement Wednesday.

As they celebrated the public health goal, officials from the center and elsewhere stressed continued caution as new strains of the virus – especially the Delta variant – continue to prevail here and vaccination rates stagnate.

“Reaching the herd immunity rate of 80 percent is not like flipping a switch, it is a continuum on our path,” said Steve Miff, CEO of the center. “It is an important achievement that we owe to residents and public health leaders who are committed to fighting COVID.”

According to public health experts, herd immunity occurs when more than 70% of a population is protected from either vaccinations or previous infection. Herd immunity does not mean that the coronavirus is gone or that the infection will stop. However, such a milestone should lead to a dramatic end to an infectious disease. However, public health experts have also emphasized that herd immunity is “fluent” as viruses can mutate and become resistant to existing vaccines.

The center estimates that nearly 49% of the county’s 2.6 million residents have natural immunity after recovering from COVID-19. The calculation is based on COVID-19 test results since the beginning of the pandemic. The center believes that for every positive test registered in Dallas County, four other adults or five other children also had the virus.

Dallas County has seen a dramatic drop in new cases and hospital admissions since its peak earlier this year after the winter break. But cases and hospital stays have increased and remain stable, said Dr. Philip Huang, the county health director, earlier this week. On Wednesday, the North Texas Hospital Region had the highest number of COVID-19 patients in beds since spring.

“The numbers are still relatively low, but it is worrying,” Huang told the district commissioner at a meeting on Tuesday.

The delta variant is expected to account for about a quarter of all new COVID-19 cases locally and double about every two weeks, the center said. And given its more contagious nature, the variant could jeopardize the county’s herd immunity. Almost 90% of the county may need immunity to suppress a spike in the Delta variant.

Herd immunity is also not uniform across Dallas County: 49 postcodes are above the 80% threshold, but 45 postcodes are still below the PCCI.

Of the postcodes with at least 80% immunity, nine have 100% protection. These zip codes include most of central Dallas, including 75201, 75202, and 75207. Other zip codes include 75251 of North Dallas and the southern suburbs of Seagoville 75159 and Sunnyvale 75182.

The least protected postcodes, according to PCCI, include North Lake Highland’s 75243 and Red Bird’s 75237.

Dr. Jamboor Vishwanatha, director of the HSC Texas Center for Health Disparities in Fort Worth, said large gaps between zip codes continue to make Dallas County vulnerable.

“Herd immunity is not an even distribution,” said Vishwanatha, who had not verified the data from PCCI. “Although we can take an average for an entire county or city, there is still much to be done, either due to access or hesitation. We shouldn’t assume an average number. If there are postcodes that haven’t reached 50 percent, we’re all still in danger. “

Only eight Dallas County’s zip codes have less than 50% protection, according to the PCCI. And some of the postcodes are shared with other counties.

Vishwanatha was not surprised that protection is lagging behind in some of Dallas County’s white and wealthier neighborhoods.

While lack of access and outreach has made it difficult to vaccinate black and Latino communities, the vaccine has become a political wedge problem. And new national research suggests that young adults are also an important section of the population not looking for the vaccine.

“It may not fall exactly on the socio-economic line, but it still matters,” Vishwanatha said.

Dallas County’s vaccination rate continues to remain flat, data from the center shows. Less than 40% of the general population are fully vaccinated and less than 50% have received a dose.

“Although previous infections and partial vaccinations offer some level of protection,” said Miff, the centre’s CEO, “all evidence suggests that total vaccinations are the most effective way to protect against the Delta variant.”

On site, less than 1% of those vaccinated tested positive for COVID-19.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said Wednesday that the county’s job of vaccinating the public is still ongoing, even though the county health department is expected to close its Fair Park mega-vaccine facility on July 17 .

“We’re going to be door-to-door, incentives, and pop-up clinics – every day, today, tomorrow and every other day,” said Jenkins.

STATEMENT, July 18, July 8, 2021: An earlier version contained low-vaccination zip codes for cities that spanned more than one county, including the Dallas county. The story has been updated to only reflect the Dallas County zip codes that have the lowest vaccination rates.

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