‘Dramatic’ rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations is predicted to surpass Dallas-Fort Worth’s winter peak

The already high number of hospital admissions for COVID-19 in North Texas is expected to increase “dramatically” in the coming weeks, as the delta variant of the coronavirus spreads almost unchecked among the unvaccinated residents of the region.

The latest model from forecasters at UT Southwestern Medical Center shows hospital stays for the virus in Dallas and Tarrant counties could overshadow their winter peaks by early September.

Dallas County is projected to have 1,500 or more hospitalizations through September 9, along with 1,600 new cases each day. The same model shows 1,900 hospital admissions and 1,700 daily cases in Tarrant County on the same day.

In early January, Dallas County peaked at more than 1,200 COVID-19 patients and Tarrant County hit over 1,500.

According to UTSW, the more contagious Delta variant now makes up 95% of positive coronavirus tests and results in a greater number of severe cases in younger people – who have lower vaccination rates – compared to previous increases. Dallas, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant counties are currently about 50% more hospitalized children with COVID-19 than they were at the January peak, and about 30% more people ages 18 to 49.

But there is good news, forecasters said: According to a Carnegie Mellon University poll, wearing of masks in public in north Texas has increased in recent weeks. The forecast states that “this simple but powerful intervention can help contain the spread of the virus” as the pace of vaccinations continues to increase.

However, the current vaccination rate must continue to rise “to avoid the worst scenarios,” the prognosis says.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said in a written statement that full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine Monday showed how effective and safe it is, adding that he hoped more people would get it would get vaccinated.

“Although the pace of vaccination in Dallas County has accelerated over the past month, we need to accelerate it further to turn the tide on the Delta,” Jenkins said.

Dallas County

Dallas County reported 32 more COVID-19 deaths and 9,138 new coronavirus cases in the past week.

Of the new cases, 7,372 were confirmed and 1,766 were likely. The numbers bring the county’s total cases to 340,244, including 290,954 confirmed and 49,290 probable. The death toll is 4,280.

The average number of new daily cases in the county over the past two weeks is 1,184. For the previous 14-day period, the average was 768.

The county reported that 846 people were hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 1,457,952 people in Dallas county have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 1,201,072 – 55.1% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Texas

The state reported 122,627 more cases last week, including 101,272 confirmed cases and 21,355 probable cases.

The state also reported 923 COVID-19 deaths last week, bringing its number to 54,023. The deaths were the most in a week since March.

The state’s total number of cases is now 3,450,934, including 2,914,188 confirmed and 536,746 probable.

There are a total of 13,163 hospital admissions in the state, including 3,137 in North Texas.

According to the state, 16,096,758 people in Texas have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine while 13,370,501 – 55.6% of the state’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Tarrant County

Tarrant County reported 48 deaths and 7,254 cases in the past week. The death toll was almost double that of the previous week 26.

Of the new cases, 5,997 have been confirmed and 1,257 are likely. The numbers bring the total number of cases in the county to 294,498, including 245,613 confirmed and 48,885 probable. The death toll is 3,755.

The county reported that 1,067 people were hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 1,087,092 people in Tarrant County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 924,796 – 53.2% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Collin County

The state added seven deaths and 2,775 cases to Collin County’s total numbers last week.

Of the new cases, 2,439 were confirmed and 336 were likely. The numbers bring the total number of cases in the county to 105,208, including 86,161 confirmed and 19,047 probable. The death toll is 883.

The county reported that 451 people were hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 650,275 people in Collin County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 565,371 – 65.3% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Denton County

Denton County reported eight deaths and 2,271 cases in the past week.

The numbers bring the total number of cases in the county to 86,481, including 63,106 confirmed and 23,375 probable. The death toll is 642.

The county reported that 180 people were hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 507,253 people in Denton County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 446,264 – 59.5% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Other counties

The Texas Department of State Health Services has provided coverage for these other North Texas counties. In some counties, new data may not be reported every day.

The latest numbers are:

• Rockwall County: 13,881 cases (10,906 confirmed and 2,975 likely), 165 deaths.
• Kaufman County: 18,826 cases (15,398 confirmed and 3,428 likely), 287 deaths.
• Ellis County: 25,854 cases (20,926 confirmed and 4,928 likely), 336 deaths.
• Johnson County: 22,326 cases (18,706 confirmed and 3,620 likely), 399 deaths.

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