Holiday travel is somehow even more uncertain than a year ago after a summer of airline turbulence

Every day, Dallas travel agent Alex Ramsey receives questions from customers who are unsure about booking vacation travel.

“Are Americans allowed to travel to Europe?”

“Will hotels and restaurants have enough employees?”

And the latest question raised by the recent turbulence: “Will my flight be delayed or canceled?”

“I tell people the first thing they need to pack is their patience,” said Ramsey, president of All Aboard Travel. “If you’re a Type A who needs everything to function perfectly, you’re going to get into trouble.”

Even after a summer of airplanes, flight cancellations and face mask fights, airlines are preparing their biggest flight plans in nearly two years while trying to increase their workforce and reject government-mandated vaccine mandates.

And gone are the benefits of flying during a pandemic. The prices will be higher and the planes will be more packed than they were a year ago.

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It’s a setting that makes travelers pause, especially when the chaos of Columbus Day weekend is still fresh in their memories. At the time, Dallas-based Southwest Airlines canceled thousands of flights citing weather and staffing issues while travelers were stranded at airports across the country. It cost the airline $ 75 million in lost revenue.

Vacation travel time tends to be more stressful, as airplanes are laden with vacationers who want to get to their destinations on time and winter storms loom as a constant threat.

“One has to wonder if these airlines are prepared for the holidays when there could be significant weather problems and high pressure in a short period of time,” said Henry Harteveldt, travel analyst with the Atmosphere Research Group.

Passengers will wait in line to rebook their canceled American Airlines flight at Terminal D at DFW Airport on Friday, October 1, 2021. (Tom Fox / The Dallas Morning News)(Tom Fuchs)

Are airlines prepared?

The airline and travel industries expect a 2021 holiday season that is much larger than last year, but still slightly below that of 2019.

Southwest’s flight schedule is about 12% smaller than it was in 2019.

American Airlines, based in Fort Worth, plans to air more than 6,400 flights on November 28, the Sunday after Thanksgiving, on its busiest day of the season, according to Diio of Cirium. That’s only about 5% fewer flights than in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet airlines have spent the past two weeks convincing travelers and investors that flight delays and cancellations that haunt the summer and fall months are not repeated during the holidays.

Southwest Airlines said Thursday that it will further reduce its upcoming itinerary – a consequence of having to cancel more than 2,000 flights in a single afternoon in Florida earlier this month due to weather and air traffic control. Southwest said it relied on staffing models it used before the pandemic.

“We had 15,000 vacationers so I figured we’d call them and say, ‘Okay, it’s time to come back’ and they’ll show up and everything would be just as it was,” said Southwest CEO Gary Kelly . “And it just isn’t.”

Aggressive flight schedules to capitalize on consumer demand can bring airlines to a breaking point if everything doesn’t go according to plan. Southwest Airlines’ Columbus Day weekend schedule was the busiest since the pandemic began, and problems centered in Florida resulted in pilots and flight crews being out of sync with subsequent flights.

That meltdown was followed by rumors that pilots had quit their jobs to protest a White House mandate to require COVID-19 vaccinations for federal contractors like Southwest Airlines. Both the airline and the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association denied any attempt by pilots to disrupt flights. However, the union has sued the airline in federal court to end the mandate.

Southwest and American CEOs tried last week to reassure their employees that if they are not vaccinated, they will not be fired, at least as long as they apply for an exemption on religious or medical grounds.

“We’re not going to let this disrupt our customers’ journeys, especially during the busy holiday season,” said Kelly.

American Airlines President Robert Isom said passenger demand is high.

“We are preparing for the holiday season and expect a lot of passengers and an enormous amount of catching up to do, especially when the vaccinations take effect [and] The infection rates are falling, ”said Isom. “We’ll be ready. We do our best to make sure we have the right people in the right place at the right time. “

Passengers will search Dallas Love Field for information regarding their flights on October 10th. (July March / RELATED PRESS)

Airfares and labor shortages

Travelers could have a very different experience than last year.

Some Christmas airfares are approaching 2019 levels, said Adit Damodaran, an economist with travel website Hopper.

This year, the average round-trip ticket for flights within the US will cost around $ 300 for Thanksgiving and $ 390 for Christmas, according to Hopper. That’s compared to 2020, when Thanksgiving tickets were $ 245 and Christmas tickets were $ 250. Round-trip tickets in 2019 were around $ 335 on Thanksgiving and $ 390 on Christmas.

That means this year’s fares are about 55% higher than last year, when prices hit their lowest level in decades due to weak customer demand.

“Things have really taken off in the last few weeks with the decline in cases of the Delta variant,” said Damodaran. “The best time to shop is usually before Halloween, before November starts.”

After vaccination rates rose in the spring, more people were comfortable traveling in the summer months, said Erin Francis-Cummings, president of consumer research firm Destinations Analysts.

Now they’re ready to get back on planes, she said.

“Contact with family and friends is still what drives the holidays,” she said. “It is heartwarming to see that people still need each other and these connections are so strong that they overcome some of the other worries.”

Vacation travel will focus on domestic destinations, mostly guests visiting friends and family. Once travelers arrive at their destination, they are likely to encounter other pandemic-related issues.

Hotels and restaurants are understaffed, said Ramsey, the Dallas travel agent. “You just can’t expect what kind of service you had before.”

Ramsey estimates that 50% or more of travelers delay travel, especially major vacations.

“Before the Delta variant went up, people were planning trips for Christmas, but then they started canceling in September,” she said. “It will take time, maybe years, because that is the new normal. That won’t go away. “

Airlines

The October cancellation collapse cost Southwest Airlines $ 75 million

Southwest’s operational challenges earlier this month cost the company $ 75 million in revenue, the result of the cancellation of more than 2,000 flights over Columbus Day weekend. Dallas-based Southwest Airlines said it had spent approximately $ 75 million on “customer refunds and goodwill” in lost revenue than on the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 Delta variant of $ 40 million a month Dollar recorded.

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