Do you feel it buyer? This could be the busiest Christmas season in more than 20 years.
This is what consumer demand experts predict as the unemployment rate falls, job creation rises, and wages and savings rise too. Credit demand has recovered to 2019 levels. Gasoline prices have likely peaked, and consumer goods inflation is largely driven by rising storage and transportation costs.
Most importantly, the number of cases in Dallas-Fort Worth has been falling since August amid the ongoing COVID-19 infections. Travel statistics show that more friends and families are gathering for Thanksgiving this year, with an estimated 3.6 million Texans driving 50 miles or more to celebrate the holiday. People have time off and use part of it to do their Christmas shopping.
The big message for buyers is, “Buy what’s in stock,” said Wendy Liebmann, CEO of consulting firm WSL Strategic Retail. “There is a pragmatism to this moment.”
And the memo to retailers is: “This Christmas season is yours,” said AlixPartners consultants. The company predicts that combined sales will increase 10-13% year over year in November and December, the busiest holiday since 1999.
The National Retail Federation predicts sales will be at least double the five-year average of 4.4% and better than 8.2% last year when shoppers spend on their personal surroundings and electronics, school and work to enable from home.
The US is still in a pandemic and while the supply chain is still messed up, it is on the mend. Retailers large and small have done everything possible to stock their stores and still ensure the long Black Friday weekend.
Online sales in November through Tuesday are 19.8% higher than last year, according to Adobe Analytics data. While Black Friday is predicted to be the biggest in-store day this year, Cyber Monday is expected to claim its place as the biggest single online shopping day of the year, Adobe said.
Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Amazon have flooded inboxes and social media messages about their deals, which used to be kept secret. The discounts started before Halloween. Consumers have heard the drumbeat of buying early because of supply chain issues.
Here’s what shoppers can expect in the malls and stores in North Texas.
Is it getting full?
Expectations of what is crowded may have changed since the pandemic began, and social distancing is creating space between shoppers. Traffic in shops and malls has increased this fall.
For many reasons, most notably the accelerated and widespread adoption of e-commerce, retail traffic is not expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in shopping malls and stores, but getting the best from last year will not be difficult coronavirus cases increased and social distancing increased limits have largely been enforced.
According to Placer.ai’s monthly mall index, which tracks visits to 100 top US shopping malls, traffic increased 3% in October compared to 2019.
Bonnie Cavin, 71, searches a toy aisle in a Walmart on Retail Road in Dallas on Tuesday, November 16, 2021. (Elias Valverde II / The Dallas Morning News)(Elias Valverde II / employee photographer)
Cowen Research has forecast that by the fourth week of November, when the Christmas shopping frenzy traditionally takes off, shopper traffic will be around 80 to 85% of 2019 levels. With the exception of the West Coast, the U.S. and North Texas are getting cold, which Cowen said could help boost sales in the cold-weather categories.
Will there be merchandise on the shelves?
As in previous years, Black Friday offers are in abundance. But if online is any indication, the choice may not be that great this year.
According to Adobe, the news that was out of print on Tuesday was up 8% from the previous week. For the month of November so far, the number of out of print messages has increased by 261% compared to November 2019.
Buyers may need to get creative and stop chasing those elusive wishlists that are filled with items that may not be easy to find. Where’s the surprise anyway?
Most people might think of TVs and kitchen appliances when shopping on Black Friday, but industry data shows clothing was the most popular item, said Traci Freling, a professor of marketing at the University of Texas at Arlington.
There will be gaps in the size and color of the goods, said Liebmann from WSL. “Have a plan A and a plan B.”
It’s up to stores to prepare their staff to fill empty shelves and help shoppers come up with other ideas. Gift cards should come in handy, she said.
Gift card sales are projected to exceed $ 28 billion this year, the highest since 2018 when charged plastic sold hit $ 29.9 billion, NRF said. Gift cards have become a hodgepodge for pandemic buyers, Freling said.
Will there be good discounts?
Overall, from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, prices are expected to be 9% higher than last year, Adobe said. Discounts are still offered, but not as big as in previous years. The biggest discounts on online apparel are expected on Sunday, Adobe said.
Will the lines at the cash register be long?
With the exception of last year, busy stores are a hallmark of Black Friday and Christmas shopping. Labor shortages are an issue this year.
However, large physical stores have installed tons of self-checkout registers over the past year, and a few special finds on hand can be a breeze in this case.
Be nice. And remember, these frontline workers have been there for nearly two years on this pandemic, keeping the stores open so consumers can buy what they need.
“After everything we’ve been through,” said Liebmann, “we won’t let ourselves be undone if an item is out of stock.”
The author Brayden Garcia contributed to this report.
Twitter: @MariaHalkias
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