Transportation innovations could slash emissions

Researchers say the future of transportation will be marked by three “revolutions” – vehicle electrification, driverless cars, and ridesharing – that could result in fewer cars on the road, fewer fossil fuels extracted from the earth, and less air pollution becomes. While the environmental benefits may seem obvious, the health benefits are difficult to quantify.

Now, for the first time, a Cornell-led team has used transdisciplinary systems modeling to calculate these health benefits in the United States. By 2050, these innovations could cut oil consumption by 50% and carbon dioxide emissions by 75% while preventing 5,500 premature deaths with annual savings of $ 58 billion.

“There are all of these major new trends in the evolution of transportation and they will become a reality in the near future,” said Oliver Gao, Howard Simpson Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the College of Engineering who led the project.

“Have you ever thought about what all these revolutions mean for your health, for our climate, for our environment and for our energy systems?” Said Gao. “These externalities don’t necessarily come straight into the minds of the public, travelers, or even decision-makers.”

The group’s paper, “Shared Use of Electric Autonomous Vehicles: Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Mobility in the United States,” was published June 26 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. The lead author of the paper is former postdoc Shuai Pan.

“Understanding the effectiveness of these mitigation strategies is worthwhile as there is a need for deep decarbonization in the transport sector,” said Pan.

Co-authors are Lewis M. Fulton from the University of California, Davis, and Yunsoo Choi and Jia Jung from the University of Houston. The research was supported by the US Department of Transportation’s Center for Transportation, Environment and Community Health and the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology.

While previous studies have examined certain facets of transportation innovation, such as the impact of electric vehicles on fuel economy and emissions, this is the first time anyone has taken a transdisciplinary systems approach that takes into account human health and related economic benefits, said Gao.

Gao’s systems research group – who uses modeling to understand complex global challenges in engineering, economics, societal wellbeing, and sustainability – is uniquely positioned for such a task.

“A traffic engineer cannot answer these questions,” said Gao. “Environmental science cannot answer these questions. A health researcher cannot answer these questions. But this transdisciplinary group can do this. “

Pan, Fulton, and Gao built an integrated assessment system that included a tech-economic mobility model, a chemical transport model, and a health impact assessment tool. They then projected the number of vehicles, distance traveled, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the continental US by 2050 and quantified the impact of changing emissions on concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere and the resulting health and economic benefits for populations in 10 major metropolitan areas .

Their simulations show that, depending on the prevalence of the three “revolutions”, a reduction in emissions from passenger transport could prevent between 2,300 and 8,100 premature deaths in the US in 2050.

Most of the prevented deaths coincided with major metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles and Chicago. At the state level, California, Texas, New York, Ohio, and Florida would see the largest decreases in premature mortality.

The associated economic benefits could be anywhere from $ 24 billion to $ 84 billion annually.

The study depends on a number of assumptions and uncertainties. After all, self-driving cars are not yet on the market, and sales of electric vehicles are lagging far behind traditional fuel guzzlers.

“Another key finding is that vehicle electrification is by far the most important element in terms of CO2 reduction and health benefits, followed by shared mobility (carpooling) and then automation,” said Pan. “The net energy impact of self-driving vehicles is highly uncertain and automation alone cannot dramatically affect energy consumption, emissions or vehicle pollution. ”

To make matters worse, the increase in efficiency and the forecast cost reduction through automation could actually lead to more trips and offset other profits.

“If we automate the vehicles, you could make the transportation system more efficient, but more people will likely travel longer distances,” said Gao. “So there is a balance, there is a compromise.”

The study concludes that policymakers can help promote the switch to electric vehicles and promote carpooling, for example through stricter fuel consumption standards, economic incentives for shared mobility and investments in charging infrastructure and technological developments.

A future of autonomous flying taxis

Of course, it is not possible to actually create such traffic innovations without first determining their feasibility.

Another research project from Gao’s laboratory – published on July 6 in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice – examines the feasibility of an airport shuttle service that uses autonomous flying taxis as a means of reducing urban traffic jams. The newspaper’s lead author is Emily Lewis ’20.

“While you’re stuck in JFK’s traffic jam [International Airport] To Manhattan, did you ever think, oh, I wish I could be a bird just to fly there. In fact, that dream isn’t too far off, ”said Gao, who directs Cornell’s Center for Transportation, Environment and Community Health. “But how do you even design a whole system, from the technology to the market forecast to the operation? Would such an idea even make economic sense? “

The study focuses on the concept of urban air mobility – essentially a transport service for low-altitude airspace in metropolitan areas that uses autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles.

Gao’s team – which included co-authors Jesse Ponnock ’20, Qamar Cherqaoui ’20, Scott Holmdahl ’20, Yus Johnson ’20 and Alfred Wong ’20 – focused on the three busiest airports in the US: Atlanta, Los Angeles and Dallas.

They used a holistic system architecture analysis to identify the key stakeholders of each area and the goals that match their needs, such as fleet management, infrastructure, traffic control, safety, usability, financial profitability, and performance. The modeling also took into account the relationships between annual profit, mean time between security incidents, upfront costs and the number of passengers carried daily.

“Because of its geographic, meteorological and demand factors, Los Angeles is proving to be the best case for a pilot city,” said Gao.

The analysis identified affluent commuters, long-distance commuters, executives, event attendees, emergency transports and vacationers as potential early adopters of an air mobility system.

What exactly would such a system look like from the passenger’s point of view? It may not look too different from today’s ridesharing services. The analysis recommended that the system use First In First Out (FIFO) queues and a smartphone interface for passengers, which may sound familiar to anyone who has ever called an Uber on their phone.

Also recommended: a hybrid energy source that integrates electrical energy for the autonomous vehicles.

But vehicles and apps are only part of it. For an air mobility system to become a reality, it needs the infrastructure to support it.

“It’s not as mature as electrification or even automation,” said Gao. “That’s even further down the street. We do not compare urban air mobility to other modes of transport or argue that this is a better mode of transport. We’re just saying that given the interest, you need to be able to design this first. And then you will be more cost-conscious. “

[ad_1]