Turkey, stuffing and fading the Dallas Cowboys
Thanksgiving is one of the most beautiful days of the year. We stuff ourselves with food, spend quality time with the family, and watch football all day. Seriously, it doesn’t get much better than that. I don’t even like turkey, but I can’t deny the greatness of Thanksgiving.
Just like turkey, filling, and cake are food-based traditions on Thanksgiving, there are football-related Thanksgiving traditions. We’re sorry to see the Detroit Lions while we prepare for the celebration. Then in the middle of the day we sit on the couch with Uncle Tony and watch the Dallas Cowboys. This year, the Cowboys are 7.5 point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders.
A Thanksgiving tradition like no other
Outside of the Super Bowl, Thanksgiving has probably the highest percentage of casual fans watching the game. Think of it in terms of your own family. You likely have uncles and cousins and grandparents sit down to watch the game. They also know that week 7 these people don’t sit down or grind around at a Browns Bengals game.
The Dallas Cowboys are the most popular football team in the world. There’s a reason they’re called “America’s Team”. With all of these casual fans watching the world’s most popular team, are the Dallas Cowboys overrated by the Thanksgiving betting market? You bet.
In the past 10 years the Cowboys have played 10 games on Thanksgiving. They were in every game but one favorite. In 2017, Dallas was a 1-point underdog against the Chargers. Even so, the Cowboys only made 4-6 straight up and a terrible 1-9 against the spread over that time frame. Last year they lost 25 points as a 3-point favorite.
KANSAS CITY, MO – NOVEMBER 21: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) yells prior to an NFL soccer game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs on November 21, 2021 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
In the last 10 years the cowboys have been favored on Thanksgiving with an average of 4.5 points. Their average win margin over this period is -8.6 points per game, which means they are an average of 13.1 points behind the bet line on Thanksgiving.
The story goes on
Here is a list of the 10 newest Thanksgiving games featuring the Cowboys:
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2020 Dallas (-3) v Washington: Washington 41, Dallas 16
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2019 Dallas (-6.5) vs. Buffalo: Buffalo 26, Dallas 15
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2018 Dallas (-7) vs. Washington: Dallas 31, Washington 23
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2017 Dallas (+1) vs. LA Chargers: LA Chargers 28, Dallas 6
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2016 Dallas (-5.5) vs. Washington: Dallas 31, Washington 26
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2015 Dallas (-1.5) vs. Carolina: Carolina 33, Dallas 14
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2014 Dallas (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia: Philadelphia 33, Dallas 10
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2013 Dallas (-8) vs. Oakland: Dallas 31, Oakland 24
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2012 Dallas (-3.5) vs. Washington: Washington 38, Dallas 31
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2011 Dallas (-7) vs. Miami: Dallas 20, Miami 19
Cowboys prefer other trends
While the cowboys don’t do well on Thanksgiving, there are three other trends worth watching that the cowboys favor.
As of 2005, Thanksgiving favorites 32-14 have been against spread, which is a 70% clip. This season, the Chicago Bears are 3.5 point favorites over the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills are 4.5 point favorites over the New Orleans Saints.
Dallas’ opponents on Thursday, the Las Vegas Raiders, have lost three games in a row after the season opener with a 5-2 record. They failed to cover the range in all three games and were exceeded with 96-43 points during this period.
Dallas has been a machine against the spread this season even though they didn’t cover against Dallas last week. The Cowboys are 8-2 against the spread this season and thus have the second-best record of all teams against the number this season.
As always, you can find a trend or statistic that fits almost any narrative. However, there’s no denying that the cowboys usually put a few extra points on Turkey Day.
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