The number of adults and children hospitalized in North Texas for COVID-19 is expected to increase in the next few weeks, according to the latest COVID-19 forecast from UT Southwestern Medical Center.
In a forecast model updated on Aug. 30, UTSW said “The current pace of hospitalization could push Dallas and Tarrant counties above January levels in September,” and that the increase could add further stress to healthcare providers.
UTSW said weekly admissions among younger age groups exceeded the peak in January and that increased hospital admissions consist of people who cannot or have not yet been vaccinated and are therefore prone to infection.
Collin County, UTSW, saw a significant increase in pediatric hospital admissions over the past week.
“Increases are also due to the highly transmissible Delta variant, which now accounts for 95% of all positive test samples at UT Southwestern and has been linked to more severe illness in some studies,” UTSW said.
UTSW said hospital admissions are increasing but not increasing as much as before, and that hospital admissions could peak around the spike in January 2021 rather than far exceeding those levels as forecast earlier this month. UTSW said the decrease in prognosis was due to the increase in self-reported wearing of masks and the increase in the number of COVID-19 vaccinations given over the past few weeks.
According to the study, Dallas County will reach 1,200 hospital admissions and approximately 1,200 new infections per day by September 16. In Tarrant County, under the same circumstances, the study predicts 1,300 concurrent hospital admissions with about 1,000 new infections per day by September 16.
UTSW’s model underscores that curbing the spread of the virus depends on increasing the number of vaccinations and changing current behavioral patterns to match those of October through November 2020, as mask requirements, limited social distancing and some restrictions on Companies were imposed.
Should these containment efforts resume, the model predicts that the peak of this fourth wave would sink much faster.
UTSW said it was still possible to avoid the worst-case scenarios if vaccination volumes returned to previous levels. They added that people under 65 make up the largest segment of hospital admissions and that because of their unvaccinated status, they remain particularly vulnerable to infection.
“Everyone is strongly encouraged to get the COVID-19 vaccine. As part of our ongoing commitment to getting vaccinations fairly, effectively and efficiently, UT Southwestern has launched an online scheduling portal where all Texans – ages 12 and up – can schedule a vaccination appointment: utswmed.org/vaccines, “said UTSW.
The hospital recommends visiting the CDC website for information on what types of activities are safe after a full vaccination and what levels of prevention are recommended.
UTSW previously said it was important to remember that people who arrive at the hospital today were likely infected about two weeks ago – meaning any behavior change will take some time to show up in the data.
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