UT Southwestern’s latest COVID-19 forecast predicts an increase in virus-related hospital admissions, which could soar past the January peaks by the end of this month if behavior is not changed.
UTSW said hospital volume has increased 99% in the past two weeks and 327% in the last month and that the trend will only increase if more people are not vaccinated and no further containment measures are taken.
“The total number of people hospitalized in North Texas for COVID-19 is expected to increase significantly over the next few weeks,” UTSW said in its report. “Crucially, the current pace of hospital growth could bring Dallas and Tarrant counties above January levels before September, putting more strain on the collective capacity of regional health systems.”
Should behavior in Dallas and Tarrant counties continue without masking and social distancing, according to the current unmitigated pre-pandemic patterns, the number of occupied hospital beds in Dallas county is projected to reach 1,500 by August 23 and could reach 4,000 by October. In Tarrant County, under the same circumstances, the study predicts 2,500 concurrent hospital admissions by Aug. 23.
The model also predicts about 2,000 new COVID-19 infections per day in each county by August 23, if not mitigated. According to UTSW, the forecast increases in new cases are due to the high transmission of the Delta variant and the large number of people who have not yet been vaccinated against the virus.
UTSW’s model underscores that curbing the spread of the virus depends on increasing the number of vaccinations and changing current behavioral patterns to match those of October through November 2020, as mask requirements, limited social distancing and some restrictions on Companies were imposed.
Should these containment efforts resume, the model predicts that the peak of this fourth wave would sink much faster.
UTSW said it was still possible to avoid the worst-case scenarios if vaccination volumes returned to previous levels. They added that people under 65 make up the largest segment of hospital admissions and that because of their unvaccinated people, they remain particularly vulnerable to infection.
“Increased personal compliance with indoor masking, physical distancing and other measures recommended by health professionals will be needed to protect the health of Texans who are currently unvaccinated or immunocompromised,” UTSW said.
The hospital recommends visiting the CDC website for information on what types of activities are safe after a full vaccination and what levels of prevention are recommended.
UTSW compiled the report based on data received as of Aug 2-3, adding that it is important to remember that the people who arrive at the hospital today were likely to arrive earlier than Aug. Weeks have been infected – meaning any behavior change will take some time to show up in the data.
“Better adherence to preventive measures and increasing vaccination rates will help us control transmission in north Texas,” said UTSW.
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