In an effort by the Republicans to regain control of Congress, this traditionally democratic part of South Texas has quietly emerged as a prime battlefield.
After unexpected gains last November, the GOP has targeted three seats in the House of Representatives in the region as key targets for next year’s midterm elections. These include the 15th Congressional District, which has not sent a Republican to Washington since it was founded in 1903, but where a GOP newcomer only scored three points in 2020.
Republican leaders believe the party is on the brink of political realignment among Hispanic voters in communities along the US-Mexico border like McAllen. Slumps among Latinos could potentially offset the party’s growing vulnerability among voters, particularly in the suburbs. Next year’s elections will determine whether these postponements are permanent or a more limited response to the tumultuous Trump-era politics, as Democrats hope.
But with Congress only having a six-seat majority in the House of Representatives, the Texas Democrats say the party must take the threat seriously.
“I don’t think we need to worry about that, and we need to invest more resources,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party.
The number one republican destination in the region is the 15th district. It currently stretches from Hidalgo County on the border, which is more than 90% Hispanic, to the eastern suburbs of San Antonio. Voters here have never sent a Republican to Washington, which is why national party leaders were so stunned when Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez, a small business owner, had just under 10,000 votes ahead of defeating MP Vicente Gonzalez, a two-term Democrat .
De La Cruz-Hernandez, who sat behind her desk in the Alamo earlier this month, wearing cowboy boots and a campaign t-shirt, credited her performance to former President Donald Trump. She said his “colorful personality” had sparked renewed interest in national politics that changed the way many Texans viewed politics.
“When they became aware of what was going on on the national stage, I think the lights went on for people where they saw it, you know what? My conservative values are no longer in line with the Democratic Party,” she said. “The bottom line is that Hispanic values are pro-god, pro-life, and pro-country. And we’re conservative down here.”
Border security, she said, was “the number one issue from the north side of the district to the south side of the district” as border crossings have skyrocketed. And Republicans in the state have been focusing on the issue, with Trump hosting a visit to the president on the border last month, which attracted hundreds of supporters.
Democratic state lawmakers have focused on blocking a comprehensive election revision bill and camped in Washington – although some Democrats representing the Rio Grande Valley have not joined them.
Nationally, the Pew Research Center estimates that around 38% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020, compared to 28% in 2016. While Trump lost the country of Hidalgo by 17 percentage points in 2020, he has more support from 2016 than doubled when he lost a whopping 40 points with just 28% of the vote. And he turned over a handful of other nearby counties, including Zapata County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton won 66% to 33%, and Kenedy, which Clinton carried 53% to 45%.
Aside from these gains, Republicans are referring to other data points to support their optimism. Javier Villalobos was elected Mayor of McAllen in June, the first Republican to hold that post in decades. The Republican-controlled Texas redistribution process could spawn districts that are even more favorable to GOP candidates as the lines are redrawn to reflect the gain of two state congressional seats.
Villalobos, who joined Trump at his border briefing and was hailed as a “superstar” by other officials at the event, said he sees his election as part of a trend driven by both Trump and economic change as more Hispanics grow entered the middle class.
“Historically, Hispanic people are very conservative, but they traditionally vote Democrats. And gradually even the elderly are changing, ”he said. “And that’s a nice thing. Competition is good.”
It is unclear whether the Republican achievements will carry over in 2020 if Trump does not stand for election in 2022. Democrats insist that their poor performance was a one-off over the past year and point to unique circumstances, including the party’s decision, largely to person campaigning during the pandemic. The McAllen Mayor’s race was impartial and the turnout was less than 10,000 votes.
Gonzalez, the Democratic incumbent in the 15th district, insists he is unimpressed by De La Cruz-Hernandez’s strong performance. He described last year’s results as “an anomaly” caused by a pandemic that devastated the district, killing thousands of residents, including some of his personal friends, and preventing many elderly voters from voting.
He pointed to specific gains made under the Biden administration that he will campaign for, including an economic recovery, mass vaccination and relief funds that have helped keep small businesses open.
“Everyone at the end of the day is working on the results and the work we’ve done, and we’ll work on what we’ve done for people,” he said.
But Texas Democratic leader Hinojosa was more cautious. He admitted the party was surprised by a surge in first-time voters casting their vote for Trump. Since no one thought the races would be competitive, little money or effort was spent on the competitions with no advertising, phone banking, or voting drives.
Trump’s message, he said, has also resonated with voters, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, where poverty rates are high and the economy is still hampered by a closed southern border. He cited concerns about the future of the oil and gas industry, the border and calls by some Democrats to “weaken the police,” which “freaked out” many law enforcement-linked voters.
“It was just an almost perfect storm for the Republicans down here,” he said, noting that the party lacked the “resources necessary to sustain support down here” as the races were not considered competitive.
In preparation for next year’s elections, he said he has already held meetings with local leaders across South Texas, formed coalitions along the border and hired a full-time organizer.
“We’re going to be spending a lot more money and a lot more time than ever before making sure what the Republicans are saying doesn’t happen,” he said. “We won’t take any chances.”
But interviews with voters suggest that there is still work to be done.
Eryc Palomares, 42, who lives in McAllen and works in a medical laboratory, said he was thrilled to see others like him who broke their allegiance to the Democratic Party, “because that’s all we’ve seen here, that is everything we know here “. . “
It was “as if they had already brainwashed you: go and vote for Democrats. It was nothing more here,” said Palomares, who is now more likely to vote for Republicans.
“People are waking up,” said Manuel Pescador Jr., 54, an occupational safety advisor and local activist who lives in McAllen.
Pescador Jr. said he changed sides seven years ago in what he saw as a culture of “handouts and false promises” and is now railing against immigrants entering the US illegally.
“They come here, they refuse to assimilate, and they are here to use all they can, in any way possible. That’s why I call them ’emptiers’, ”he said. “That’s why Hispanics who can vote can vote Republicans because we know who’s getting in.”
Joe Guerra, an independent living in McAllen, didn’t vote in last year’s presidential election but said he wasn’t at all surprised by the GOP’s wins.
“The Republican Party was just a symbolic presence here for years. But the conservative spirit was always here,” he said. “They were always there and (Trump) just had the ability to bring them out. That’s how they always were.”
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