UTSW predicts COVID-19 numbers like worst periods of pandemic if latest trends continue

Updated at 10 a.m. on July 22nd: Revised to include Tarrant County’s coronavirus numbers.

By October, COVID-19 cases and hospital stays in North Texas could return to levels not seen since January and last summer, according to the latest forecasting model from UT Southwestern Medical Center.

This is especially true if vaccination rates remain slow and the public doesn’t step up the use of masks and social distancing, experts say.

“We are really at an important crossroads and decision point where we have this tight window of opportunity to take action to change the tide of these rising cases,” said Dr. James Cutrell, an infectious disease expert at UTSW.

The model, using data from Monday, predicts that Dallas County will experience approximately 600 new coronavirus infections daily through August 9, a day through August 2.

According to the latest model, hospital admissions in North Texas have increased 89% in the past two weeks and 156% in the last month. Data from the state shows 925 people in the 19-county area, which includes Dallas-Fort Worth, will be hospitalized with the virus as of Monday.

UTSW’s updated model predicts 400-500 patients with COVID-19 cases will be hospitalized in Dallas County alone by Aug. 9.

Dr. Stephen Love, president and CEO of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, said that if the model’s predictions for August are fulfilled, hospitals will have enough beds and PPE, but may face staffing problems, as they did in January.

Love noted that in January state-provided traveling nurses to reinforce existing hospital staff were no longer available.

Two main reasons for spikes

Cutrell said the surge in cases and hospital admissions was mainly due to slowing vaccination rates and the growing importance of the highly contagious Delta variant.

The Delta variant is 40% to 50% more transmissible than the original, unmutated strain of the coronavirus, Cutrell said. It can lead to more serious illnesses even in the unvaccinated.

According to the state, 1,307,362 people in Dallas County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 1,119,856 – 51.3% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

But the pace of vaccinations has slowed, especially among people under 65 who now make up the largest proportion of hospital admissions in most of north Texas counties, Cutrell said.

The virus is killing unvaccinated people across the country.

Of the 8,787 Texans who died of COVID-19 between February 8 and July 14, at least 43 were fully vaccinated, the Texas Tribune reported Wednesday, citing preliminary data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. That means 99.5% of those deaths occurred in unvaccinated people, the Tribune reported.

“We still have a chance to turn the corner and avoid those big increases in cases and hospitalizations,” said Cutrell. “But I want to stress that now is the time to act.”

Latest Dallas County report

Dallas County reported five more COVID-19 deaths and 659 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday.

The most recent victims were two Dallas men in their 30s and 70s, a Balch Springs woman in their 50s, a Grand Prairie man in their 70s, and a Sunnyvale man in their 80s.

Of the new cases, 546 have been confirmed and 113 are likely. The numbers bring the county’s total cases to 311,380, including 266,820 confirmed and 44,560 probable. The death toll is 4,171.

The average number of new daily cases in the county in the past two weeks is 249. For the previous 14-day period, the average was 154.

Texas

Across the state, 5,240 more cases were reported on Wednesday, including 5,056 new cases and 184 older cases recently reported by laboratories.

The state also reported 33 COVID-19 deaths, increasing its number to 51,709.

Of the new cases, 3,621 were confirmed and 1,435 were likely. Of the older cases, 150 were confirmed and 34 likely.

The state’s total number of cases is now 3,039,980, of which 2,584,324 are confirmed and 455,656 are likely.

According to the state, 14,402,702 people in Texas have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 12,447,607 – 51.7% of the state’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Tarrant County

Tarrant County reported two deaths and 320 cases on Wednesday.

Details of the youngest victims were not known.

The newly reported numbers bring the total number of cases in the county to 268,194, including 223,645 confirmed and 44,549 probable. The death toll is 3,610.

The county reported Wednesday that 321 people were hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 974,576 people in Tarrant County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 863,576 – 49.7% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Collin County

The state added one death and 223 cases to Collin County’s totals on Wednesday.

No information was available about the youngest victim.

Of the new cases, 188 were confirmed and 35 likely. The numbers bring the total number of cases in the county to 94,430, including 76,931 confirmed and 17,499 probable. The death toll is 856.

According to the state, 596,924 people in Collin County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 531,074 – 61.4% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Denton County

Denton County reported 210 cases on Wednesday. No other deaths were reported.

The newly reported cases bring the total number of cases in the county to 78,476, including 57,277 confirmed and 21,199 probable. The death toll is 628.

According to the state, 465,780 people in Denton County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 413,167 – 55.1% of the county’s population 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Other counties

The Texas Department of State Health Services has provided coverage for these other North Texas counties. In some counties, new data may not be reported every day. The latest numbers are:

• Rockwall County: 12,167 cases (9,617 confirmed and 2,550 likely), 159 deaths.
• Kaufman County: 16,751 cases (13,791 confirmed and 2,960 likely), 268 deaths.
• Ellis County: 23,267 cases (19,054 confirmed and 4,213 likely), 325 deaths.
• Johnson County: 20,360 cases (17,159 confirmed and 3,201 probable), 380 deaths.

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