NFL picks, predictions against spread Week 11: Chiefs clip Cowboys; Buccaneers, Browns roll; Raiders fall again
Weeks 9 and 10 were a bit of a challenge to our NFL game selection and predictions against the spread as the lines tightened and smarter to play the “cooler” for a hot streak in the early midseason. That just means we have to be sharper for the new challenges in week 11.
The list of competitions goes back to 15 matchups with only two teams, the Broncos and Rams, on one bye. As usual, for some games it is beneficial to jump on the lines early in the week before more information is available.
Let’s dive into another loaded schedule with our latest fearless soccer prediction on pro-Schweinskin predictions:
(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel)
NFL POWER RANKING:
Titans take over; Cowboys, patriots shoot up; Buccaneers, Ravens drop for week 11
NFL votes against the week 11 spread
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys and Chiefs saw their offenses explode as expected in Week 10 as Dallas enjoyed a loss to Atlanta and Kansas City, which passed Las Vegas and ran. With Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes returning to their elite status after brief hiccups, you can expect this game to live up to its high scoring and exciting reckoning. Both QBs love to throw downfield for big plays, but they’ve also proven to be good at grinds with long drives that lean a little more on the run. The Kansas City defenses are raised from the home field to make a few more games than Dallas, while the matchups for Mahomes’ primary weapons are slightly better for Prescott’s.
Choose: Chiefs win 34-31 and cover the spread.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Patriots are back to business with Bill Belichick. Playing defense and letting the ball run that way makes the job of rookie quarterback Mac Jones a lot easier. You don’t have to give anything here. They will not hesitate to stick to their strengths because they will also orientate themselves on the weaknesses of the hawks. Matt Ryan’s roller coaster transition takes another big drop, while Jones has more diverse and deeper weapons to easily outplay him.
Choose: Patriots win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
It is the Buccaneers’ turn to turn the ship to the right in prime time after pinching two serious road losses in a row as a farewell. Tom Brady rarely has two bad games in a row, and he definitely doesn’t have three when his team needs him most, with more defensive injuries and an ongoing offensive handicap. The Giants shocked the Saints and Raiders, but that was then and not in this situation against a watchful, angry team. The Bucs have been perfect in Tampa since Super Bowl 55 and although New York’s D has its time, besides Big Blue, to sing sad songs after parting. Trainer Bruce Arians will challenge his team all week and it will play Hangman vs. Joe Judge’s Club.
Choose: Buccaneers win 38-17 and cover the spread.
- Surprise of the week: Jets (+3, 45.5 o / u) over dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jets have their victories against the Titans and Bengals at home. Here’s another opportunity for Robert Saleh’s team to add a confidence-building game in a season of recovery only. New York could have a healthy Zach Wilson. Miami can feel good when Tua Tagovailoa starts again. But the jets have had the better rush attack lately while the dolphins cannot exploit the jets as much. All of a sudden, the jets also have more reliable weapons than the Dolphins.
Choose: Jets win 23-20.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Browns have also been burned many times lately, losing four of their last six games. Running out of time to focus on a run that will secure their second AFC playoff host in a row. Baker Mayfield has to play better than Myles Garrett and the talented defense has to adapt better. The Lions are a welcome change and make the 170 mile Great Lakes Trek southeast to Dawg Pound. The Lions’ one-dimensional offensive will not work again on the streets at AFC Nord. Cleveland is going to be running hard with a rested Nick Chubb to relieve Mayfield.
Choose: Browns win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers have been shaky at home this season but stand 3-1 under Kyle Shanahan. With calculated preparation, you travel rather well to the east coast and that won’t change in a short week. Shanahan may have gotten too creative and cute while leading his team, but however you cut it, San Francisco’s intrigues are way better than what Jacksonville has with Urban Meyer’s staff.
Choose: 49ers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts will need to run wire-to-wire with Jonathan Taylor to get the rest of their offensive rolling. The Bills’ running defense can at least contain him early and put Carson Wentz in more uncomfortable situations with the elements on the street in November. Josh Allen will be able to do much against the Colts’ pass defense and his newfound patience will come to the fore here. The Bills only face limited Colts guns while the Colts cannot explain all of the skills around everyone.
Choose: Bills win 27-17 and cover the spread.
- Washington Football Team at Panthers (-2.5, 43 o / u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Washington will injure defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat. But overall, the team played the kind of gushing defense Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio expected, with better intrigue after the bye to Brad. With Antonio Gibson, they have brought their running game closer to their ideal state. Gibson vs. Christian McCaffrey will be the true duel of its kind, with Taylor Heinicke potentially facing former QB teammate Cam Newton. Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner know the Panthers well and will try to take down Matt Rhule and his staff in a chaotic game.
Tip: Washington wins 23-20.
- Ravens (-6.5, 45 o / u) at Bears
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens have been a much better home team this season, although they suffered a heavy loss to the Bengals in Baltimore. The road was tortured, losing in Las Vegas and Miami but escaping Detroit and dominating Denver. The Bears will deploy an upgraded all-around rookie QB against a vulnerable home defense at Justin Fields, with some of their key components serving to contain Lamar Jackson’s return. Chicago has enough weaknesses to be exploited on either side, while Jackson saves the day again in the fourth quarter with lots of arm and a few legs.
Choose: Ravens win 24-20 but cannot cover the spreads.
- Saints at Eagles (-1.5, 43.5 o / u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles defeated the Saints 24-21 in Jalen Hurts’ first career start on December 13th. They are hoping for a result similar to that of the easy surprise home favorites. The Eagles have been focusing on hurts and their committee backs lately and it has worked to settle hurts and make the passing game more effective. But the Saints stop the run well, taking a break with rookie DeVonta Smith who leads a limited Eagles’ reception corps, and the tight end Dallas Goedert could miss the game with a concussion too. The Saints have played a sharp short to medium passing offensive with Trevor Siemian and can still play the ball whether it’s Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram.
Choose: Saints win 20-17.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans should fight harder after the bye to score a second win, much like the Lions on the street to crack a goose egg. Tyrod Taylor should better lead the offense as the Titans secondary holes haven’t gone away. Ryan Tannehill has done just enough with AJ Brown and not much more without Derrick Henry. That’s happening again here because Mike Vrabel makes sure his team doesn’t get caught looking at New England in Week 12.
Choose: Titans win 30-20 but cannot cover the spread.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a tough division game for the Packers as they try to keep their No. 1 seed status in the NFC. But they’re fine without Aaron Jones because AJ Dillon gives Aaron Rodgers a lot of support. Minnesota’s secondary school is a mess and the pass frenzy doesn’t have much and already outperformed against the Chargers last week. The Packers defensive play more confidently and will contain Kirk Cousins when it matters most in the second half.
Choose: Packers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals will look great after a bye when Joe Burrow dismantles a tumbling defense that either can’t cover all of his talented wide receivers or can slow Joe Mixon’s run. Cincinnati will continue to eliminate some defensive problems while Las Vegas will continue to set up craps at all levels. The teams have similar résumés, but their paths diverge here and you still feel good about your AFC playoff chances in week 12.
Choose: Bengal win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals can let Kyler Murray rest for another week with a week 12 goodbye, though Colt McCoy may not be able to replace him. The Seahawks will get a more normal Russell Wilson at home after shaking off the rust from his finger injury in Green Bay. He should also get a running game boost from Chris Carson. Running out of time to keep up the winning streak with Wilson, Seattle will be desperate to take down a division enemy. Injuries have forced the Cardinals to retreat to a more reasonable spot on the NFC playoff picture.
Choose: Seahawks win 24-21.
- Steelers at Chargers (-4, 47 o / u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers suffered two major defensive injuries in Week 10 against the Lions – Edge Ruser TJ Watt, Cornerback Joe Haden – which are of great help to Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing game Week 9. Ben Roethlisberger should return for a tough pass defense pose who probably defeated the wide receiver Chase Claypool again. Between Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Steelers have tough duels across the board.
Choose: Chargers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Vinnie Iyer’s tips for 2021:
- Week 10 record against the spread: 6-8
- Pick up week 10 straight up: 7-6
- Season ATS: 81-67
- Season up: 97-52
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